It was aimed to search to be able to forecast the crises which arise from demand fluctuations, and to able to generate a systematic and dynamic process in the hotel businesses. In the quantitative period, forecasting was realized to 149 monthly series of a five star hotel in Ankara via MA, Simple, Holt's, Winter's Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA. The results of these methods were compared by some error measures. At the other side of integration, two Delphi based inquiry panels were realized: The Variables Determination Panel and The Environmental Monitoring Panel. The opinions of second group panelists were used to adjust Winter's Multiplicative forecasts via AHP based approach. This process shows that, if the forecasting and adjustment process is applied to hotels monthly, it will be useful for crises arised from demand fluctuations in hotelbusiness. The most important characteristic of model is being elasticity for change and development.
Posted in: 
